Donald Trump’s reported pause on $400m (£297m) in weapons aid to Taiwan has fuelled fears he is using US support of the island to negotiate with China.
Trump’s pause on weapons provisions, if confirmed, included orders for lethal munitions and autonomous drones, but could still be reversed, the Washington Post reported on Friday.
It came amid US efforts to negotiate a trade deal with China after a long and punishing trade war, and hours before Trump and China’s leader Xi Jinping spoke on the phone on Friday. Trump said they had made “productive” progress on issues including trade, fentanyl and TikTok. They also agreed to meet in Korea in October, and for Trump to visit next year.
But analysts noted the respective readouts of the call did not mention Taiwan, Beijing’s most sensitive issue in its foreign relations, particularly with the US. The ruling Chinese Communist party (CCP) plans to annex Taiwan as Chinese territory, by military force if necessary.
Taiwan’s government and people overwhelmingly reject the prospect of CCP rule, and the standoff has prompted an arms buildup on both sides of the Taiwan strait, with much of Taiwan’s stocks coming from the US, Taiwan’s most significant backer in its resistance.
“To avoid war and defend peace we must build defence capabilities and societal resilience through continued preparedness,” said Taiwan’s president, Lai Ching-te, on Saturday.
During Trump’s first term, weapons sales to Taiwan soared past $10bn for the first time since the 1990s. Since 2022, US presidents have had congressional approval to send up to $1bn in US weapons stocks to Taiwan and Ukraine annually.
But in Trump’s second term there has been a significant cooling on Taiwan. He has questioned the worth of US support, mused that Taiwan should pay for US “protection”, and spurned the security aid mechanism in favour of actual sales. Taiwan has boosted its defence spend accordingly, with plans to reach 5% of GDP by 2030.
News of the pause was unexpected, and rippled through an annual defence expo in Taipei on Thursday, as arms dealers displayed the latest weaponry and tech. Staff manning one well-known multinational firm’s stand began frantically Googling when asked for their thoughts, according to one attender.
Taiwan’s government would not confirm or deny the report, saying the US “has long supported Taiwan in strengthening its defence capabilities”.
William Yang, the senior analyst on north-east Asia for the Crisis Group, said the pause was probably Trump putting Taiwan on the “back burner” so he could concentrate on getting the best deal out of Beijing, rather than a sign of abandonment. But he warned Beijing could “exploit this gap”.
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“I think what Trump [thinks of as a] temporary tactical concession on the issue of Taiwan is in fact creating an opportunity for China to prolong this pause into something that could potentially become a new reality,” he said.
Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Reuters the outcomes of the Xi-Trump call were in China’s favour.
“Beijing is betting that high-PR, low-mean deliverables, like symbolic fentanyl actions, are going to be traded for relief on tariffs and technology controls and Taiwan,” he said.
Amanda Hsiao, a director in the Eurasia Group’s China practice, said Beijing would use the leaders’ engagement to try to extract further assurances on Taiwan, but suggested US backing for the island would remain. “However, it’s quite likely that arms sales, [allowing Taiwan’s president] Lai transit [through the US], and other acts of support to Taiwan will resume after the Trump visit to China.”
