Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, has been banned in Portugal after its suspicious betting patterns during the country’s presidential election raised red flags. The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos (SRIJ), Portugal’s gaming regulator, ordered the platform to shut down within 48 hours, citing its operation without a license and its involvement in illegal political betting.
Betting Surge Amid Election Results
The controversy erupted following the January 18, 2026, presidential election when Polymarket recorded over €4 million in wagers within just two hours leading up to the release of official results. According to Cryptonews, a sharp increase in betting odds for candidate António José Seguro, who was initially given a 60% chance of victory, raised suspicions after the odds shifted dramatically in his favor just before the polls closed. By 6 PM, Seguro’s chances surged to 96%, a remarkable jump that mirrored the results of the private exit polls circulating at the time. He ultimately won the first round with approximately 31% of the votes.
The timing and scale of these betting movements triggered an investigation by the SRIJ, which concluded that Polymarket’s activities violated national laws that prohibit political betting. Political events, including domestic elections, are strictly off-limits for betting in Portugal, a policy outlined in the country’s 2015 online gambling law.
Polymarket, which allows users to wager on real-world events like politics, sports, and more, was operating in a legal gray area in Portugal. While online gambling is not explicitly prohibited, it is not regulated either. The country has a regulated land-based casino sector, along with horseracing and a lottery duopoly, but online gambling operations are only permitted in specific areas such as sports betting, casino games, and horse racing. The platform was found to be in violation of these restrictions.
Polymarket, founded in 2020, has faced scrutiny from regulators in several countries, including recent challenges in Europe. The platform allows users to buy and sell shares on potential outcomes of events, but its involvement in political betting has triggered alarm bells. This is not the first time Polymarket has attracted attention for suspicious betting behavior. Previous incidents, such as the large-scale profits made from betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s ousting, have raised concerns about the integrity of its markets.
Widespread International Pushback
Portugal’s ban is part of a broader global trend as more countries take action against Polymarket. In recent months, European nations, including France, Switzerland, and Hungary, have imposed bans on the platform. Poland, Italy, Belgium, and Germany followed suit with their own restrictions, citing concerns over unlicensed gambling activities. Most recently, Ukraine added Polymarket to its national ban registry due to bets placed on the Russian invasion. These actions are part of a growing crackdown on platforms that offer political and controversial betting, often without the necessary regulatory approvals.
While Polymarket continues to operate in some markets, including the United States, the platform faces increasing legal hurdles. In the U.S., Polymarket gained approval in late 2025 to return to the market after purchasing a CFTC-licensed exchange. However, states like Tennessee and Connecticut have challenged the platform’s operations, questioning whether federal commodities regulation can override state gambling laws. These ongoing legal battles highlight the regulatory divide that Polymarket faces as it tries to balance innovation with compliance.
As Portugal moves to block Polymarket, the platform’s future in the country appears uncertain. SRIJ has warned that once the platform is blocked, users may lose access to their funds, as Polymarket operates without the necessary consumer protections that licensed operators provide. The platform remains accessible as of January 20, 2026, but regulators are preparing to take further action by instructing internet service providers to block it.
The growing list of countries blocking Polymarket suggests that the platform’s operations are increasingly coming under fire from regulators worldwide. As of now, the platform remains active in 34 countries, but it faces mounting opposition in Europe and challenges in the U.S. The question remains whether Polymarket can adapt to evolving regulatory landscapes or whether it will face further isolation in the global market.
