Twice as many Americans believe their financial security is getting worse than better, according to an exclusive new poll conducted for the Guardian, and they are increasingly blaming the White House.
The poll, conducted by Harris, will be a further blow to Donald Trump’s efforts to fight off criticism of his handling of the economy and contains some worrying findings for the president.
-
Nearly half (45%) of Americans said their financial security is getting worse compared to 20% who said it’s getting better.
-
57% of Americans said the US economy is undergoing a recession, up 11% from a similar poll that was conducted in February.
The US is not experiencing a recession, which is typically defined as two quarters of negative growth. And last week, the US posted far stronger than expected economic growth figures for the summer months.
But the pessimism underscores an economically tumultuous year. Americans have reported feeling shaken by Trump’s tariffs, mass government layoffs and a crackdown on immigration. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence has dropped for five consecutive months.
The White House has insisted that it’s “bringing our economy back from the brink of ruin”, as Trump said in a mid-December speech. “Now, under our leadership, [prices] are all coming down – and they’re coming down fast,” the president said.
The new Harris poll underscores the sharp differences between political party, gender, race and income that shape how people see the current state of the economy. Republicans scored Joe Biden’s handling of the economy far more harshly than Democrats during his term.
The stark divisions between Democrats and Republicans continue to persist. Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans to say their financial security is getting worse – 52% versus 27%.
But more concerningly for Republicans, who will have to fight next year to keep their majority in Congress, Trump hasn’t been able to sway independents. A majority (54%) of independents said their financials are worsening, +9% compared with February’s polling. Most independents (58%) also believe the country is experiencing a recession.
And more of the blame is being placed on the White House than ever before. When asked to choose between the government or corporations for the question “who is most responsible for any increasing prices”:
-
76% of Democrats said it was government management of the economy, +17% from February’s poll.
-
72% of independents also pointed to the government, +14% from February.
-
Republicans were less likely to point to the government, with 55% saying it was government (-6% compared to February) and 45% blaming corporate practices.
Analysis after the 2024 election showed Trump gain with women and Hispanic voters. But in another worrying sign for Republicans, over the course of his first year, these voters have soured on the economy.
While Americans overall have grown more pessimistic this year, women are far less confident about the economy than men. Nearly two-thirds of women (62%) believe the US is experiencing a recession, +12% from February, compared with 52% of men who believe the same. And half of women (50%) believe their financial security is getting worse while 39% of men believe the same.
Stark racial gaps are seen for beliefs on the overall state of the US economy. Two-thirds of Black and Hispanic voters (66% and 67%, respectively) think the US is in a recession, compared with 52% of white voters. The jump for Hispanic voters was +11% from February, the highest jump among any race.
The poll also highlighted what some economists have referred to as the K-shaped economy – the divide in economic sentiment between wealthy Americans, who are the largest beneficiaries of a booming stock market, and everyone else. Of those who are making less than $50,000 a year, 59% said their financial security is getting worse, +13% compared to February’s poll. In comparison, 37% of those making over $100,000 said things are getting worse.
This survey was conducted online within the US by The Harris Poll from 11 to 13 December 2025, among a nationally representative sample of 2,180 US adults.
