Just what an embattled chancellor needs on the eve of a tax-raising budget: a leading retailer upping its profits forecast and singing about the joys of the UK economy.
Unfortunately, only the first bit is true. Kingfisher, owner of B&Q and Screwfix (and similar businesses in France and Poland), raised its profit expectations for its current financial year from £480m-£540m to £540m-£570m.
But it definitely didn’t ooze confidence in the UK outlook. Rather, Kingfisher noted “softening market conditions” and added: “We continue to be mindful of inflation, uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget and the softening labour market.”
In other words, the group is saying its improvement in the profits department is a self-help job, which is fair. Like-for-like sales in the UK in the last quarter were up 3%. It is winning market share in the UK (where it helps that Homebase went into administration a year ago), grabbing a bigger slice of the professional “trade” market and improving its e-commerce game. The slick Screwfix operation continues to be streets ahead of its direct rivals. Meanwhile, the recently troubled French operation (Castorama and Brico Dépôt) is being restructured, which helped slightly to off-set local “weak consumer sentiment” that sounds several degrees worse than in the UK.
Take a step back and Kingfisher’s progress can be regarded as a parable of the retail scene in two ways. First, it is proof that a basically well managed operator in a strong competitive position can prosper even under subdued economic conditions. For other examples, think Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Next. All have been great shares to own in the 12 months since Rachel Reeves’s last budget, never mind the increase in employers’ national insurance and the rest of it.
The other aspect is more nuanced. On one hand, the ridiculously long and chaotic build-up to the budget has plainly sapped consumer confidence – a CBI distributive trades survey on Tuesday confirmed what we already knew. On the other hand, there still remains a basic level of resilience if Kingfisher is a guide. “Softening” is not the same as outright soft. For that, give thanks for four cuts in interest rates since last October’s budget. Lower mortgage costs matter particularly in DIY businesses for big-ticket items such as kitchens and bathrooms.
So one can – just about – sketch out an optimistic scenario for consuming-facing companies in which Reeves avoids inflation-raising howlers such as last year’s NICs rises and clears the way for the Bank of England to cut interest rates faster. The gilts market has half-bought that story in recent weeks as yields have fallen from their scary September highs.
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The alternative, though, is not good from businesses’ point of view. The prospect of rate cuts is virtually the only big-picture factor running in their favour as they contemplate pressure on wages and fixed costs. Remove lower borrowing costs and there’s little to stop softening conditions turning soggy very quickly. Kingfisher, to repeat, can handle most outcomes. But consumer sentiment across the retail landscape looks fragile.
