US added fewer jobs than forecast in December
Newsflash: The US economy added fewer jobs than expected last month.
America’s non-farm payroll rose by 50,000 in December, missing forecasts of a 60,000 rise.
Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, while retail trade lost jobs.
That shows a hiring slowdown, compared with the previous month; the BLS now estimates that 56,000 jobs were created in November, 8,000 fewer than its first estimate of 64,000.
Key events
Strategist: January rate cut very unlikely following drop in jobless rate
Today’s drop in the US unemployment rate means there’s almost no chance of a cut to interest rates this month, argues Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said:
“The prospect of a January Fed rate cut has all but vanished following the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate. It is now difficult to argue that the labour market is collapsing and in urgent need of monetary support.
However, the picture remains far from clear: payroll growth undershot expectations, and downward revisions to prior months have pushed the three-month moving average into negative territory. While a tighter labor supply may explain part of the dynamic, sustained job losses hardly inspire confidence.
The U.S. economy likely requires additional support from the Fed — just not immediately.”
Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, says there’s little sign of an economic bounceback following the end of the US government shutdown:
“Today’s US employment situation print shows just 50,000 jobs were added in December.
This was below expectations of 60,000 and shows the labour market remains considerably more subdued than in recent years. Healthcare, social assistance, food services and drinking places were among the sectors driving much of the hiring, while retail saw job losses.
“The government shutdown resulted in a period of market labour market weakness, and today’s figures show there is yet to be much of a bounce back, though the unemployment rate saw a slight decline to 4.4% from a revised 4.5% previously. The data also outline the substantial drop in payrolls in 2025 compared to 2024, with just 584,000 jobs added last year compared to 2.0 million the year prior.
Where were jobs created in December?
More than half of the 50,000 jobs created in the US last month were at food services and drinking places, where payrolls rose by 27,000.
Health care continued to add workers in December; payrolls rose by 21,000, including 16,000 in hospitals.
Employment in social assistance rose by 17,000.
But it was a tougher jobs market in retail, where 25,000 jobs were cut.
Federal government employment rose by 2,000, suggesting that the Doge jobs cull may have abated – after 277,000 jobs were lost through 2025
Unemployment rate dips to 4.4%
America’s jobless rate has fallen, to 4.4% in December, down from 4.5% in November.
Today’s employment data shows that the unemployment total dipped from 7.781m in November to 7.503m in December.
The number of people employed rose, month-on-month, but the labor force participation rate dipped from 62.5% to 62.4%, implying more people were neither in work nor looking for a job.
Today’s jobs report also shows that federal government employment has fallen by over 9% since the start of the year, when Elon Musk’s “department of government efficiency” (Doge) began cutting jobs.
The BLS says:
Federal government employment was little changed in December (+2,000). Since reaching a peak in January, federal government employment is down by 277,000, or 9.2 percent.
New analysis released today shows that the Trump administration “wasted” $10bn on paid leave, or paying workers to stay home, as part of Doge’s assault on the federal workforce.
US job creation slowed in Trump’s first year
We can also see today that much fewer jobs were created in Donald Trump’s first year than the final year of Joe Biden’s administration.
The Establishment Survey Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics today shows that payroll employment rose by 584,000 in 2025, which is an average monthly gain of 49,000.
That’s rather less than the increase of 2.0 million in 2024 (an average monthly gain of 168,000).
US lost 173,000 jobs in October
Oof! It now appears that many more jobs were lost in October than first estimated.
Today’s jobs report shows that nonfarm payroll employment in October fell by 173,000, much worse than the estimate of 105,000 job losses.
That’s partly because many federal employees took deferred buyout offers from the Trump administration and were paid at the end of September, meaning they dropped out of the non-farm payroll in October.
So, with 8,000 fewer jobs created in November than previously thought, that means employment in October and November combined is 76,000 lower than previously reported.
US added fewer jobs than forecast in December
Newsflash: The US economy added fewer jobs than expected last month.
America’s non-farm payroll rose by 50,000 in December, missing forecasts of a 60,000 rise.
Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places, health care, and social assistance, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, while retail trade lost jobs.
That shows a hiring slowdown, compared with the previous month; the BLS now estimates that 56,000 jobs were created in November, 8,000 fewer than its first estimate of 64,000.
Charity Commission investigating City & Guilds over concerns about asset sales
Back in the UK, the Charity Commission has opened a statutory inquiry into City and Guilds of London Institute, following reports in the Guardian about the sale of its training and awards business.
The Commission says the inquiry will examine information provided ahead of the sale, “following concerns raised in public reporting relating to the sale and bonuses awarded to its executives”.
Last month, my colleague Simon Goodley reported that two City & Guilds executives have each been awarded million-pound bonuses and sizeable salary increases following the sale of its training and awards operation, City & Guilds (C&G), to PeopleCert.
The Commission will also look into the trustees’ decision-making regarding the sale and entering into a ‘coexistence agreement’ with the new company.
Markets brace for US jobs report
The financial markets are limbering up for the final, and most important, major economic news of the week – the US jobs report for December, due in half an hour’s time.
Economists predict that December’s non-farm payroll report will show that the US economy created around 60,000 new jobs last month.
That would be a slight slowdown on the 64,000 added in November, but rather better than October’s shockingly bad report, which showed 105,000 jobs were lost!
The non-farm payroll could shift market expectations around the US’s growth prospects, and the likelihood of interest rate cuts this year.
It should also give us a better insight into the health of the economy, after last autumn’s shutdown disrupted the usual flow of economic data.
Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays, says:
“Revisions to prior months will also be closely scrutinised as the impact of the US government shutdown continues to be felt. Ultimately this report is just one piece of a puzzle that also includes inflation and an upcoming decision by the US Supreme Court on reciprocal tariffs.
As such, we doubt it will be enough to significantly alter the current narrative that the US Federal Reserve will remain on pause through Q1.”
In the UK property sector, home sales in November last year was 8% higher than the same month in 2024, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) figures.
Around 100,350 homes changed hands in November 2025, which is also 1% more than in the previous month.
An estimated 732,310 home sales have taken place in the financial year to date, running from April to November 2025, compared with 746,220 a year earlier, according to the HMRC figures.
UK residential transactions estimates diverge depending on your preference to season or not. In November 2025 there were 100,350, 8% higher than November 2024 and 1% higher than October 2025 when seasonally adjusted, That said when non-seasonally adjusted the number of UK… pic.twitter.com/9uNDpxCnEe
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) January 9, 2026
EU backs Mercosur trade deal despite farmer protests
Lisa O’Carroll
European nations have backed the biggest ever free trade agreement with a group of South American countries, ending 25 years of negotiations but risking further tensions with farmers around the bloc.
France, Poland, Austria, Ireland and Hungary opposed the deal in the face of protests from the agricultural sector, but Italy dropped its opposition allowing the landmark deal to be adopted under the majority voting system.
The deal with Brazil, Argentina, Paraquay and Uruquary, must still get the approval of the European Parliament but bar any major U-turns by member states, it could be signed off as early as next week by European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen.
The European Commission which concluded negotiations a year ago had hoped to get the deal over the line at the European Council summit but it was pulled from the agenda at the last minute after opposition by France and Italy, two of the bloc’s biggest agricultural producers.
On Thursday night French president Emmanuel Macron announced it would vote against the deal after farmers rolled into Paris on tractors in the latest protests against the pact which they fear will flood the bloc with cheap and substandard meat.
A senior European Commission official described Ireland’s decision to also vote against the deal as “disappointing” claiming the country’s concerns had been address.
Belgian abstained from the vote, reflecting differences in the federal government.
Supporters of the deal say it will help the EU diversify and compensate for the new trade barriers erected by Donald Trump and lower tariffs on the equivalent of just 1.5% of beef produced in the EU.
It will see import duties phased out on 91% of EU goods and allow freer access to critical raw materials like lithium needed for batteries in the European car industry.
The German federation of industries has welcomed the Mercosur deal saying it is an important day for the Germany and European economies showing that the “EU can be a relevant geostrategic actor”.
We have some rather mixed economic data from Europe’s largest economy this morning.
German exports unexpectedly fell by 2.5% in November, with shipments to the US, and other European Union countries, both declining.
But factory output has risen unexpectedly in November, by 0.8%, while factory orders surged by 5.6% in the month.
Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg, says this shows the German government’s stimulus package is starting to work, lifting domestic demand, explaining:
Of course, monthly data are volatile. We thus have to take the November surprise with a 5.6% mom surge in German factory orders and a 0.8% gain in industrial output with a pinch of salt. Still, the three-month moving averages tell a story: German industry seems to be beyond the worst.
I mentioned earlier that coal could be a stumbling block in the Rio-Glencore merger talks, but apparently it’s not!
Bloomberg are reporting that Rio Tinto is open to retaining Glencore’s coal business if merger talks between the two companies are successful.
That would be a return to coal for Rio, which sold its last Australian coal mine in 2018.
Rio’s willingness to return to coal echoes a wider reversal in the business and political climate, as US President Donald Trump champions a backlash against green policies.
Rio and Glencore previously held discussions about a combination in 2024, but the talks fell apart after they failed to agree on issues, including valuation. Since then then copper has rallied to a record high and Glencore has sought to position itself as a company with huge copper growth potential. Rio gets most of its earnings from iron ore.
Glencore’s coal business is regularly its biggest profit driver, although the unit has underperformed over the past year as coal prices tumbled.
